AGP Executive Report

EU Trade Pivot: Mark Carney is pushing Canada toward an “associate member” style relationship with the EU as U.S. trade talks sour, with talks reportedly covering energy, AI, critical minerals, defence and even Arctic shipping and undersea cables. U.S.-Canada Escalation: The White House moves to ban Canadian dairy, alcohol and motorcycles from Sept. 29, adding procurement exclusions while tariffs and counter-tariffs keep reshaping cross-border supply chains. Consumer Backlash: Canadians are increasingly shunning U.S. trips and products, with travel to the U.S. down sharply and grocery “Buy Canadian” behavior showing up in retailer sourcing and labeling. Index & Markets: S&P Dow Jones loosens eligibility for S&P/TSX Canadian indices, potentially clearing the way for Anglo Teck to stay in key benchmarks after the Teck merger. Energy & Deals: Shell completes its ARC Resources acquisition, boosting its Montney gas position ahead of LNG expansion. Nuclear & Agriculture: Saskatchewan promotes uranium and nuclear expertise in the U.K., while Ottawa funds $3.1M for swine disease surveillance upgrades. Geopolitics & Trade Rules: The U.K., France and others announce bans on goods from illegal Israeli settlements, adding another layer of trade friction with real-world compliance impacts.

Canada-UK-France Settlement Trade Ban: The UK says it will ban goods from illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and target specific companies/individuals tied to settlement expansion; France confirms it will end trade with settlements alongside 11 other countries, citing security risks and the two-state solution. U.S.-Canada Trade Escalation: The White House announces a Sept. 29 import ban on specific Canadian dairy, most alcohol, and motorcycles, plus tighter U.S. federal procurement rules—another step after Canada’s retaliatory tariffs. Carney’s Capital Push: Prime Minister Mark Carney heads to Strasbourg and Liverpool to deepen EU and UK ties on trade, investment, defence, AI, and critical minerals, while Canada Investment Summit pitches 160+ projects aimed at catalyzing $1T in investment. Mortgage Stress Test: CMHC says Canadians have been shifting toward shorter fixed terms and variable mortgages since 2022, which can boost flexibility but increases exposure to future rate changes. Digital Government Overhaul: Ottawa launches Digital Transformation Canada to consolidate federal tech functions, modernize systems, and expand responsible AI use. Household Finance & Fraud: Thunder Bay warns about bank-impersonation phone scams; separate coverage highlights how Canadians are bracing for trade-war impacts and higher costs.

Canada–U.S. Trade War: The latest tariff escalation is hitting specific sectors as the U.S. moves to ban Canadian dairy, most alcohol and motorcycles from Sept. 29, while Canada’s retaliatory tariffs have already taken effect on about C$20B of U.S. imports, targeting items like steel, dairy, appliances and electronics. Retail Impact: A “buy Canadian” backlash is reshaping supermarket shelves, pushing grocers to tighten country-of-origin labeling and shift sourcing away from the U.S. Capital Agenda: Mark Carney’s Canada Investment Summit is set to pitch 160+ projects to global funds, aiming to mobilize $1T over five years, alongside a push to deepen EU ties. Defence & Regional Growth: Manitoba launched a Manitoba–Canada Defence Alliance to attract defence and security investment, leveraging NORAD HQ and major aerospace assets. Crypto & Banking Rules: OSFI says tokenized deposits are legally the same as traditional bank deposits, while Pineapple Financial tokenized $1B+ in residential mortgage records on Injective. Household Finance: A one-time $150 Canada Disability Benefit supplement is scheduled for Sept. 17 for eligible recipients. Scams & Consumer Risk: Police warn of bank impersonation phone scams, and ticket fraud concerns are rising around Celine Dion’s Paris residency.

Canada–U.S. Trade War: The tariff fight keeps widening. The U.S. announced an import ban on Canadian dairy, alcohol and motorcycles starting Sept. 29, while Canada’s retaliatory tariffs already hit about C$20B of U.S. goods, pushing consumers and firms to re-route spending and supply chains. Consumer Impact & “Buy Canadian”: Retailers and producers say the backlash is helping some local brands as shoppers shift away from U.S. goods; meanwhile, analysts note Canada can look like a temporary bargain market on certain items. Markets & Banking: Big banks raised fixed mortgage rates as funding costs climbed, and investors are watching how higher rates and trade uncertainty feed into household finances and credit risk. Defence & Drones: Ottawa awarded its first drone marketplace contracts worth up to $50M, aiming to scale Canadian production for Ukraine as Carney and Zelensky push a longer-term defence partnership. Regulation & Crypto Access: OSFI says tokenized deposits are legally the same as traditional bank deposits, and a Canadian filing opened a regulated path for U.S. investors to trade XRP ETF options. Policy & Sanctions: Canada eased sanctions on Syria to reduce barriers for recovery-related transactions. Investment Pipeline: The Canada Investment Summit is drawing major commitments from banks and pensions, with provinces pitching energy, critical minerals and defence projects to global capital.

Canada–U.S. Trade Shock: The White House announced a Sept. 29 ban on many Canadian dairy, alcohol and motorcycles, plus new procurement rules that exclude Canadian products from large U.S. government contracts—escalating a tariff fight that already hit billions in both directions. Credit Watch: Fitch says Canada’s AA+ rating can handle the current round, but a wider escalation could pressure federal and provincial finances. Settlement Trade Sanctions: The UK, with France joining, moved to ban goods from illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, targeting services tied to construction, infrastructure, financing and real estate. Defence & Industrial Push: Canada and Ukraine signed a 100-year partnership in Calgary, centered on drones and expanding defence supply capacity, with Ottawa aiming to scale production rapidly. Banking & Capital Markets: BMO pledged up to $70B over 10 years for critical sectors; Sun Life earmarked $5B for infrastructure investing. Household Finance: A one-time $150 Canada Disability Benefit supplement is set to go out next week. Markets & Investing: Vanguard released September cash distributions for multiple TSX-listed ETFs.

U.S.-Canada Trade War: The White House moved to ban specific Canadian dairy products, most alcohol and motorcycles starting Sept. 29, and added procurement restrictions tied to the broader tariff fight—raising pressure on Canadian exporters after Ottawa’s C$27.6B counter-tariffs took effect. Alberta Policy Response: Alberta created a new tariff-focused cabinet committee to track impacts on families and small business and to review whether supports are actually reaching those hit. Ukraine Defence & Industry: Canada pledged over C$2B in expanded support, including a C$350M air-defence interceptor package and a 100-year Canada-Ukraine partnership aimed at scaling drone production and building domestic defence capacity. Canada Investment Summit Build-Up: Ahead of Mark Carney’s Toronto summit, a prospectus highlights 160+ projects across energy, clean tech and infrastructure, as Ottawa seeks major capital to cushion trade-war uncertainty. Banking/SME Funding: CIBC announced a $2B commitment to finance small and medium defence and dual-use firms across Canada. Corporate Finance: Thomson Reuters priced a large US note offering plus Canadian private placements, using proceeds to repay debt. Markets & Housing: Commentary flagged the loonie “imbalance” debate and noted Canadian home affordability is improving but still not back to normal.

Canada–U.S. Trade War: The U.S. escalated its dispute with Canada by banning specific Canadian dairy products, most alcoholic beverages and motorcycles starting Sept. 29, and adding federal procurement restrictions that exclude Canadian goods from large U.S. government contracts. Provincial Response: Ontario expanded eligibility for its Protect Ontario Financing Program and Ontario Together Trade Fund to help tariff-hit firms and support reshoring away from the U.S. Banking & Payments: Peoples Group is partnering with Feedzai to upgrade fraud monitoring ahead of Canada’s Real-Time Rail rollout in Q4 2026, aiming to make instant settlement safer. Fintech M&A: ByteX and Cenne announced a strategic merger under the ByteX brand to combine AI-native finance with regulated cross-border payment infrastructure. Energy & Climate Tech: Alberta broke ground on Enhance Energy’s large carbon capture hub near Clive, targeting up to 1.5M tonnes CO2/year initially. Housing Watch: National Bank data points to early signs of a housing recovery, with sales up and listings down in July.

Canada–U.S. Trade War: Canada’s counter-tariffs kicked in Sept. 8, and Washington followed with import bans and “stacking” tariffs of 50% on Canadian goods, with CBSA guidance now in place and economists warning targeted sectors could be hit hard. Market Watch: The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% but flagged rising inflation risks as global bond yields move higher and tariff impacts loom. Corporate Finance: Rogers priced $1.6B in fixed-to-fixed subordinated notes (US and Canada tranches) to refinance older debt. Energy & Trade Diversification: Canada says it’s ready to supply Poland with uranium and LNG and discuss nuclear cooperation as Ottawa pushes to diversify beyond the U.S. Investment Readiness: The Canadian Infrastructure Council released a guide aimed at helping governments answer key questions to unlock private capital for infrastructure. AI Governance: Ottawa launched a public consultation on AI transparency, focusing on how people can know when they’re interacting with AI and how AI-generated content is identified. Geopolitics & Sanctions: Canada, the U.K. and France joined a broader push to restrict trade in goods from Israeli West Bank settlements, drawing strong reactions from Israel and support from several Muslim-majority countries. Regional Impact: B.C. wine producers brace for a U.S. alcohol import ban, while Calgary’s mayor warns of a looming $50B infrastructure deficit shaping next budgets.

CIRO Market Moves: Trading resumed for CASA Minerals Inc. after a CIRO halt tied to improper dissemination of news, while other TSX-Venture names like TPUT and NILI saw trading pauses for pending closings or news. Regulatory Enforcement: CIRO issued reasons for decision in the Debojyoti (Debo) Majumder matter, imposing a permanent securities-industry prohibition plus $50,000 in fines and $25,000 in costs after non-cooperation. Border & Fraud: CBSA action at Mirabel led to charges over forged permanent resident-style documents and counterfeit-fabrication materials, following a seizure of blank cards and holograms. Canada–U.S. Trade Fallout: Trump’s tariff escalation is feeding political pressure on U.S. Republicans ahead of midterms as Canada retaliates on roughly $20B in U.S. goods; markets also react to oil jumping above $100 amid Iran tensions. Housing Supply: Manitoba is investing up to $73M to create as many as 821 homes via a federal-provincial-city partnership. AI/Infrastructure: Google plans a major AI infrastructure build-out in Finland, while Canada’s data-centre growth continues to draw attention to power and execution capacity.

Canada–U.S. Trade War: The U.S. escalated against Canada with bans on Canadian dairy, most alcohol and some motorcycles, plus moves to exclude Canadian goods from long-term U.S. government contracts—aimed at taking effect Sept. 29—after Ottawa’s “dollar-for-dollar” retaliatory tariffs on about $20B of U.S. imports took hold. Tariff Spillovers: Canadian businesses and investors are bracing for higher input costs and supply-chain disruption, with manufacturers warning the impact hits deeper than finished products. Market Mood: U.S. stocks slid as oil prices rose on Middle East tensions, adding inflation pressure ahead of key data that could shape Fed rate expectations. Policy Pivot: Prime Minister Mark Carney framed the fight as a push to reduce overreliance on the U.S., while Canada also signals interest in deeper ties with the EU. Banking/Capital Markets: Scotiabank is issuing defence bonds under a new framework, while BMO announced an AT1 limited recourse capital notes issue. Other Canada Finance Signals: Gaon Cable said it’s entering Canada’s public power grid market with its first MV cable supply in western Canada.

Canada–U.S. Tariff War: Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on about C$27.6B of U.S. imports kick in at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, with duties up to 50% after stalled talks, as Ottawa warns of dollar-for-dollar matching. Corporate Canada Under Pressure: Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada will move faster to cut U.S. reliance as the trade shock hits, while analysts flag potential disruption from a threatened U.S. ban on Bombardier business-jet sales. Middle East Trade Sanctions: Canada joins the UK, France and 10 other countries in restricting trade tied to Israeli West Bank settlements, with Israel responding by closing the UK consulate in East Jerusalem. Insurance Deal: Wawanesa gets regulatory approval to acquire Everest Insurance Company of Canada, targeting a Q4 close and expanding specialty commercial coverage. Market Watch: RBC Capital details its view on the Spire Healthcare bid after Toscafund’s offer, and U.S. markets slip as crude rises and geopolitical tensions intensify. Energy & Homefront: Federal fuel excise tax relief is extended to Jan. 31, 2027, and Carlsberg Canada highlights water-efficiency upgrades in Ontario. Investing & Growth: Power Metallic posts an updated high-grade copper-focused resource at its Lion Zone, while Canada’s CRE story turns to demographics as a key signal for 2027.

Canada–U.S. Tariff War Escalates: Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on about $20B (C$27.6B) of U.S. goods kicked in Tuesday, with duties from 15% to 50% hitting sectors like steel, dairy, appliances, electronics and farm equipment, as talks remain frozen and both sides trade blame. Small Business Pressure: Quebec rolled out procurement and support measures to protect local firms and jobs, while CFIB warned many owners feel like “cannon fodder” in the trade fight. Bombardier Gets Targeted: Trump renewed threats to block Bombardier sales in the U.S., prompting pushback from Kansas Sen. Jerry Moran and Bombardier’s defense of its U.S. jobs and supply chain. Currency Watch: The Canadian dollar rebounded as markets digested U.S. data and Fed expectations, with USD/CAD sliding back from recent lows. Investor Risk Lens: A survey found Canadian institutional investors are treating climate risk as mainstream business risk, alongside AI, sovereignty and trade disruption. Crypto/Gold Debate: Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse used the Dutch central bank’s gold move to argue traditional settlement is slower than crypto for moving value. Corporate Moves: Sapporo said it will shift some beer production to the U.S. due to tariff costs, while Discovery Mining added board and executive leadership.

Canada–U.S. Trade War: Canada will start counter-tariffs on C$27.6B of U.S. goods Tuesday, with rates of 15%, 25% or 50% across steel, dairy, appliances, ag equipment, pulp/paper and electronics, aiming to match U.S. duties “dollar for dollar.” Markets & Energy: With U.S. markets shut for Labor Day, Asian stocks surged while Europe drifted; Brent pushed above $97 as Iran–U.S. tensions lifted oil and bond yields. Crypto Enforcement: A crypto scam ringleader accused of stealing $240M in bitcoin is set to appear in U.S. court, highlighting ongoing fraud risks as regulators pull back. Banking/Investing: Canaccord Genuity initiated Kistos at “buy,” citing a transformative Oman deal and balance-sheet deleveraging potential; Berenberg also lifted its view on Hilton Food after stronger H1 momentum. Policy & Jobs: Ottawa marked Labour Day with “Team Canada Strong” plans to recruit and train up to 100,000 skilled trades workers by 2031, framing tariffs as a threat to workers needing retooling and diversification. Infrastructure/Regional: Transport Canada media advisories point to major nation-building investment announcements in the Northwest Territories.

Canada-U.S. Tariff Standoff: Ottawa says no formal talks are planned as retaliatory tariffs hit Tuesday, after Trump escalated with 50% duties on about $20B of Canadian imports; Quebec Premier Fréchette called a rare virtual cabinet meeting Monday as levies are set to range from 15% to 50% across goods like dairy, steel and copper. Currency Pressure: Trump again attacked the Canadian dollar, calling the “imbalance” with the U.S. “unacceptable,” adding another layer of uncertainty for exporters and consumers. Labour Impact: B.C. labour leaders warn workers are taking the hardest hit from the trade war, with forestry among the most exposed sectors. Banking & Markets: A Reuters-style theme runs through the week: investors are trimming U.S. exposure and watching political interference in markets, while Canadians weigh dividend and income plays like BCE and bank stocks. Fintech Expansion: PayTic, a Canada- and Morocco-based payments firm, is expanding into Saudi Arabia with AI-powered back-office payment operations. Retirement Reality: A story on seniors’ pension shortfalls highlights how CPP/OAS outcomes can leave retirees struggling when housing and groceries outpace income. Corporate/Investing Watch: GM’s ratified Unifor deal locks in over C$1B in Canadian investment despite tariff risk, while AMC challenged Robinhood over tokenized AMC-linked shares. Data Centre Policy: Ottawa unveiled new expectations for responsible data-centre development as community concerns grow.

Canada–U.S. Trade Tensions: Trump again attacked the Canadian dollar “imbalance” as unacceptable, as the tariff fight escalates with 50% duties on about $20B of Canadian imports and Canada promising dollar-for-dollar retaliation starting Sept. 8. Tourism Fallout: U.S. tourism groups are trying to win Canadians back with deals, but travellers call it a “wasted effort” while the trade war and political insults keep souring the mood. Public Mood in Canada: A Leger poll finds 41% of Canadians now see the U.S. as an “enemy,” with most blaming Trump directly; support for retaliation remains high even as people worry about higher costs. Jobs and Household Pressure: Canada shed about 41,700 jobs in August, with economists pointing to trade-exposed sectors as the risk before the full tariff impact hits. Big Canadian Deal: Alstom signed a C$4.7B agreement to build 313 VIA Rail passenger cars in Canada, with a 15-year support package—another major manufacturing and infrastructure push. TFSA Investing Angle: A new take argues investors could put a 2026 TFSA contribution into a 5.5% TSX dividend stock for passive income, emphasizing dividend sustainability over yield alone.

Canada–U.S. Tariff Fallout: A new Leger poll finds 41% of Canadians now see the U.S. as an “enemy,” with Trump driving the shift and 74% backing retaliation despite expected economic pain. Banking & Competition: The U.S. DOJ antitrust unit reportedly ordered staff to pause cooperation with Canadian authorities, but the DOJ says it was a misunderstanding tied to rescheduling, not a full freeze. Housing Finance: CMHC posted higher Q2 net income ($465M) as mortgage-backed securities and Canada Mortgage Bond issuance stayed active, supporting liquidity in Canada’s housing finance system. Public Policy & Health: The Canadian Medical Association urges Ottawa to challenge Alberta’s health-care rules, warning they could expand private care and weaken the public system. AI Infrastructure: Ottawa rolled out a voluntary AI data-centre framework built around five principles (local benefits, power and water impacts, transparency), as communities push for clearer protections. Investment & Industry: Carney’s investment summit targets $1T over five years, while Via Rail’s $4.7B plan shifts passenger car manufacturing toward Canadian facilities amid trade-war uncertainty. Geopolitics & Markets: Europe continues moving gold reserves toward London, with the Netherlands relocating 86 tonnes from North America citing “crisis preparedness.” Trade-Sensitive Sectors: Canadian wool producers face 50% U.S. tariffs on greasy wool and some finished products, with some customers being lost as costs and red tape rise.