AGP Executive Report

Rates & Inflation: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that elevated energy costs could push inflation higher and strain global resilience. Investors will watch Monday’s Canadian CPI release and Friday’s retail sales data for clues on the rate outlook. Major Investment: Fairfax Financial’s planned 60.7% purchase of India’s IDBI Bank remains a landmark Canadian-led banking deal, valued at 52,878 crore rupees and subject to regulatory approval. Data Centres: EverWind’s proposed $10-billion Nova Scotia data-centre campus and renewable-energy portfolio would be one of the province’s largest private investments; Anthropic has also leased space for its first Canadian data centre. Trade Ties: Canada and India are pressing to advance a trade pact ahead of a proposed December visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while Canadian officials also discussed economic and investment cooperation with the UAE. Energy: Carney’s proposed oil pipeline could expand exports to Asia, but industry forecasts suggest automation—not a return to the last oil boom—will drive much of the production growth.

Rate Outlook: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem expects higher oil prices to push the inflation forecast up at the Oct. 28 decision. If oil stays near US$100 a barrel, inflation could climb from 3%, keeping rate risks in focus. Big Investment: Anthropic has leased space in EverWind’s planned Nova Scotia data-centre campus, part of a proposed $10-billion investment in computing and renewable energy. Housing: Canadian home sales fell 2.3% in September, with sales down 7.7% year over year as higher mortgage rates weighed on buyers. Cross-Border Finance: Fairfax’s $5.56-billion deal for a controlling stake in India’s IDBI Bank is nearing completion, pending regulatory approval, and marks a major Canadian investment abroad.

Rate Outlook: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem says persistently high oil prices will push the bank’s inflation forecast higher, with the October 28 decision approaching. If oil stays near US$100 a barrel, inflation could rise from 3%; the bank is ready to adjust policy if needed. Cross-Border Banking: Fairfax’s planned C$7.6-billion purchase of a 60.72% stake in India’s IDBI Bank is moving ahead, subject to regulatory approval. IDBI reported a 39% profit decline, but net interest income rose 29% and margins improved, excluding a one-time gain in last year’s results. Trade and Investment: Canada and India report progress toward a year-end trade pact, alongside nearly 300 business representatives’ signing of 34 commercial agreements worth about C$300 million. Industrial Investment: Hitachi Energy has broken ground on a C$479-million London, Ont., plant to make transformer components, with production expected in 2028. Steel Sector: Ottawa is threatening penalties or a forced sale of Stelco’s Canadian operations if its U.S. owner proceeds with planned layoffs of up to 500 workers.

Rates and Housing: Canada’s 68,000-job September decline complicates the Bank of Canada’s Oct. 28 decision: weaker employment may restrain rate increases, while high energy costs keep inflation risks alive. Home sales also fell as mortgage rates rose. Steel Showdown: Ottawa warned Cleveland-Cliffs it could force a sale of its Canadian assets if the U.S. company proceeds with up to 500 Stelco layoffs, citing job commitments made when it bought the steelmaker in 2024. Fairfax’s IDBI Deal: India approved Fairfax Financial’s purchase of a 60.72% stake in IDBI Bank for about US$5.5 billion. India’s Finance Ministry defended the sale, citing a court ruling that permits the government to dilute its holding. Major Investment: Anthropic signed its first Canadian data-centre lease at EverWind’s planned Point Tupper campus in Nova Scotia, part of a proposed C$10-billion investment in data-centre and wind projects. Trade Ties: Mark Carney confirmed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Canada Dec. 11–12, as both countries work toward a trade deal by year-end.

Cross-Border Banking: Fairfax’s $5.6-billion bid for a 60.72% stake in India’s IDBI Bank has cleared a key government hurdle, marking a major overseas banking investment by the Canadian firm. Major Projects: EverWind announced a $10-billion plan for a Nova Scotia AI data-centre campus and wind projects, with construction targeted to begin in phases from 2027. Energy Supply Chain: Hitachi Energy will invest $478.8 million in a London, Ont., factory—the first in Canada to make electrical-grade pressboard—with $30 million in federal support. Housing & Rates: September home sales fell as mortgage rates rose, while housing starts remained broadly flat; Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem says energy prices add uncertainty to the rate outlook. Business Finance: RBC committed more than $70 million to Futurpreneur to support young and Indigenous entrepreneurs and help launch 2,350 businesses over five years. Fintech: Canadian company Pentiv, formerly Pineapple Financial, launched an AI platform for mortgage brokers and is eyeing U.S. expansion.

Market Rally: Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.55% on Thursday, joining a broad global advance. Fairfax’s India Deal: Fairfax won approval to buy 60.72% of IDBI Bank for about C$7.6 billion, its biggest overseas banking move. The Canadian firm plans to fold in its Digit insurance and IIFL Capital interests, pending regulatory approvals. Trade and Investment: Canada and India are pushing to conclude a trade pact by year-end, with a Canadian trade mission highlighting opportunities in technology, aviation and clean energy. Economic Outlook: Canada’s economy is expected to grow more slowly through late 2026 as trade uncertainty and high fuel costs weigh. September’s 68,000 job losses and 6.5% unemployment rate add to concerns. AI Financing Risks: Investor unease over debt-funded data centre expansion is hitting AI stocks and bonds. CoreWeave, an anchor tenant at BCE’s planned Saskatchewan facility, fell 15% this week, while its bond yields topped 15%.

Markets: The S&P/TSX rose more than 300 points in late-morning trading, with financials among the stronger sectors. Cross-Border Banking: Fairfax Financial won approval to buy 60.72% of India’s IDBI Bank for ₹52,878 crore (about US$5.56 billion), in the country’s largest financial-sector foreign investment deal. Fairfax says it plans to bring its Go Digit insurance and IIFL Capital holdings under the bank; regulatory approvals remain ahead. Economic Outlook: Canada’s GDP is forecast to slow through late 2026 as trade uncertainty and high fuel costs weigh on growth. September’s 68,000-job drop and 6.5% unemployment rate add to concerns about household finances. Rates and Housing: Rising bond yields are pushing up fixed mortgage rates as more than a million households face renewals this year, complicating the choice between fixed and variable loans. Trade and Banking: Canada and India are aiming to conclude a trade pact by year-end, while Canadian banks and telecom firms have launched a shared fraud-intelligence exchange.

Fairfax’s IDBI Bet: India approved Fairfax Financial’s ₹52,878-crore ($5.5-billion) purchase of a 60.72% stake in IDBI Bank, the largest foreign investment in an Indian bank. Shares fell 7.5% after the announcement, following a rally; the deal still needs regulatory approval. Canada–India Trade: Ottawa and New Delhi are pushing to conclude a trade pact by year-end, with a goal of lifting annual trade to $70 billion by 2030. Banking Competition: Canada’s banking regulator wants to address the competitive gap between small and large lenders. Economic Outlook: Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 6.5%, easing expectations of a Bank of Canada rate hike. An aging population is also expected to shrink the workforce.

Cross-Border Banking: Fairfax Financial has won approval to buy 60.72% of India’s IDBI Bank for about US$5.6 billion, the country’s largest-ever foreign investment in financial services. Rates and Jobs: Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 6.5%, cooling expectations of a Bank of Canada rate hike and putting fixed mortgage rates in focus as bond yields climb. Banking Oversight: Canada’s banking regulator wants to address the competitive gap between smaller and larger banks, as financial institutions face heightened scrutiny of sector risks. Indigenous Finance: RBC issued a $500-million Indigenous bond to fund communities and businesses. Business Investment: Ottawa committed another $500 million to help Canadian businesses adopt AI.

Markets: Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.9% on Oct. 13, even as major U.S. and European indexes edged lower. Growth and Rates: September’s 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate have cooled expectations for a Bank of Canada rate hike; the IMF’s warning on rising bond yields keeps pressure on fixed mortgage rates in view. Business Investment: Ottawa added $500 million to support AI adoption and commercialization, bringing the initiative’s funding to $700 million. RBC also issued a $500-million Indigenous bond to finance communities and businesses. Trade: Canada and India are pushing to conclude a trade pact by year-end, with a goal of lifting annual trade to $70 billion by 2030.

Economic Outlook: Canada’s September jobs report showed a loss of 68,000 positions and unemployment at 6.5%; a separate forecast cut 2026 growth to 1.1%. Bond-yield moves are also putting fixed mortgage rates in focus. Markets & Investment: NEI Investments launched three lower-cost portfolios combining Vanguard ETFs with active fixed-income management. RBC Global Asset Management named a new private-markets head as the business grows beyond $15 billion in client investments. Trade & Capital: Canada’s 300-member mission to India is pressing ahead with trade-pact talks, while Prime Minister Mark Carney and Narendra Modi reaffirmed their goal of doubling two-way trade by 2030. Corporate Finance: Czech defence group CSG bought a 9.5% stake in MDA Space, becoming its largest shareholder; Silver Tiger Metals closed a C$100-million share-and-warrant financing. TC Energy also completed a deal giving five First Nations an economic interest in Coastal GasLink.

Space Investment: Czech defence group CSG bought a 9.5% stake in MDA Space, becoming the Canadian satellite company’s largest shareholder and opening the door to further cooperation. Trade Outlook: Foreign Minister Anita Anand is in India as nearly 300 Canadian business delegates pursue partnerships and CEPA talks, with both countries targeting $70 billion in trade by 2030. Household Finances: Nearly half of working Canadians report financial stress, while a separate survey finds savings are shrinking and more families are seeking side work. Jobs and Rates: Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 6.5%, cooling expectations for Bank of Canada rate hikes and keeping mortgage costs in focus. Banking: TD won regulatory approval to buy back up to $10 billion of its shares. Financial-System Risk: OSFI has flagged frontier AI as a top threat to Canada’s financial sector.

Currency and Costs: A weaker Canadian dollar is adding pressure to grocery bills, while higher wheat, rice, soy and corn prices threaten to lift food costs further into 2027. Retail Deals: Alimentation Couche-Tard agreed to buy 52 Canadian retail sites and 18 cardlock locations from Irving Oil, expanding its domestic network. Trade and Investment: Canada is sending nearly 300 business delegates to India in its largest trade mission there in 30 years, as both countries push toward a trade pact. Jobs and Rates: September’s loss of 68,000 jobs and a rise in unemployment to 6.5% have cooled expectations of a Bank of Canada rate hike, though weaker employment adds to concern about the economy. Cross-Border Capital: The Weston family’s US$8.9-billion Boots acquisition includes up to US$2.3 billion from Fairfax Financial for a 50% stake, putting Canadian investors behind a major international retail deal.

Jobs & Rates: Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 6.5%, strengthening expectations that the Bank of Canada may hold off on rate hikes. Currency & Mortgages: The weak jobs report pushed the Canadian dollar to an 18-month low, while rising bond yields are already lifting costs in the fixed-mortgage market. Banking: TD received regulatory approval to buy back up to $10 billion of its shares. Trade & Investment: Nearly 300 Canadian business delegates are in India on Ottawa’s largest trade mission there in more than 30 years, as both countries pursue a trade deal and a $70-billion bilateral trade target by 2030. McCain Foods is also expanding in India, agreeing to acquire a potato-processing business with a new plant and a network of more than 1,000 farms; terms were not disclosed. Financial Stability: OSFI warned that geopolitical, economic and AI-related risks are intensifying for Canada’s financial sector.

Jobs & Rates: Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 6.5% for a second monthly decline. Economists say the weak report may give the Bank of Canada breathing room on rate hikes; the loonie hit an 18-month low, while bond yields are reshaping fixed-mortgage pricing. Economic Shift: The Bank of Canada says lower immigration and an aging population are changing the country’s economic outlook. Banking Watch: OSFI flags advanced AI alongside wider geopolitical and economic risks facing Canada’s financial sector. Trade & Investment: Ottawa is sending nearly 300 business delegates to India on its largest trade mission in 30 years, with a goal of reaching $70 billion in trade by 2030. Major Deal: Canadian owners Wittington Investments and Fairfax agreed to buy UK pharmacy chain Boots in an US$8.9-billion deal; CIBC is providing its largest leveraged-buyout financing.

Jobs and Rates: Canada shed 68,300 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 6.5%, cooling expectations for Bank of Canada rate hikes and adding fresh uncertainty for borrowers and investors. Banking Risk: OSFI has flagged frontier AI as a growing threat to Canada’s financial system, while regulators are tightening safeguards on banks’ AI use. TD Buyback: Toronto-Dominion won regulatory approval to repurchase up to $10 billion of its shares, a major capital-return move for investors. Trade and Investment: Canada is sending nearly 300 business delegates to India as ministers push to advance a trade pact and deepen commercial ties. Federal Finances: The parliamentary budget officer warned that Ottawa’s spending approach could drive debt-servicing costs into dangerous territory.